Tag Archives: risk

02.15.26
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Delay Creates Reliability Risks

Generally when utilities identify vulnerabilities in their systems, they plan to build the infrastructure needed to strengthen the system. That was once the way we planned too. That planning is how the need for the transmission line was first identified.

Unfortunately, due to the Council’s “pause” on construction, we quietly shifted from planning to build reliable infrastructure, to planning to use rolling blackouts if needed to protect the overall grid. This shift in standard and corresponding increase in risk has been documented in the Annual Transmission Assessments that Water & Light is required to prepare and provide to the Northern Electric Reliability Corporation in December of each year. These reports are also provided to the Council each year, and yet each year the Council continued the delay.

I began requesting copies of the Annual Transmission Assessments in 2016, with confidential data redacted. I received those reports regularly through 2023, although with each year, more and more material was redacted as risk grew and more and more areas that might be affected by rolling blackouts were identified. Between 2016 and 2023 the identified contingencies and potential areas for load shedding grew in number with every report, and the extent of that change can be seen in comparing the 2016 and 2023 reports.

When I requested the 2024 and 2025 Annual Transmission Assessments, the City refused to release them, even in redacted form. The response provided simply stated that “After review by the Legal Department, the transmission assessment has been found to be a closed record in its entirety under sections of the Missouri statutes 610.021(14), (19), and (20) which states: RSMo, the Federal Power Act, security measures and operational guidelines the disclosure of which would impair the City’s ability to protect the security or safety of persons or real property, and existing or proposed security systems and structural plans, the public disclosure of which would threaten public safety and the public interest in non disclosure outweighs the public interest in disclosure of the record.” This denial can be viewed as further evidence that the failure to build the transmission line has continued to increase our risks.

Ongoing delay will only further erode our reliability. As the now retired head of Water & Light told Council in 2024 “. . . these improvements are necessary if shedding load is not an acceptable option for reliable service to customers. I do not believe that load shedding is a responsible service for our customers. The transmission upgrades are needed now to ensure long-term reliability to customers.”

The facts have not changed over time: the transmission line is needed, and building the transmission line along the Nifong/Vawter School route is the most cost effective, highest value route to ensure the reliability of our electric service. We need to invest in this infrastructure now, and reduce our risk.

08.21.18
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Keeping An Eye On Our Electric Service

We have previously discussed the Council’s ongoing failure to address the overloading of the substations that serve the South and Southwest and also affect power downtown. The overloading has only gotten worse. In 2015 the Perche Creek substation exceeded its loading goal by 22%. In 2017, that number was 29%. In July of 2018, it was 48%. Perche Creek was not the only substation to exceed its loading goals in July. Blue Ridge, Rebel Hill, and the Power Plant all exceeded 100% of their loading goals. Hinkson Creek was at 99%.

Electric systems must have reserve capacity for times of high loads and/or problems with the system such as those caused by storms, to avoid outages. This overloading is a current issue, not one for future planning. We were lucky this year. What might have happened had we had longer stretches of extreme heat as we did in 2011?

Until put on hold by the City Council, installation of the Mill Creek substation was part of Water & Light’s contingency plan to keep the system up and running under adverse conditions. (Compare these 2016 maps which show the system without Mill Creek, and with its addition.)  “Load shedding” is a focus of the current plan. This was explained to the City Council in January 2018, although it did not draw much discussion. Where would outages occur? Depending on where the load needed to be dropped, outages would start with the circuits tied to that particular substation and after that, would occur on circuits identified “from a priority or community impact relationship.” (Minutes, January 2, 2018, pp. 13 and 14.)

How would your business, residence, or our community be affected by an extended outage? Is this a risk we are willing to simply live with? If not, speak up! Electric infrastructure takes time to plan and install. We have 11 months before next summer. This is an urgent issue that needs ongoing attention.  Can we develop an action plan for Vision: Lights On!?